- Something that is very likely to happen, succeed, or be true; a choice or prediction that involves little risk.
Explanation
Origin
- Comes from gambling terminology. A bet is a wager on an outcome. A safe bet is one where the chance of winning is very high, so there's little risk of losing your money.
- The phrase has broadened to mean any prediction or assumption that is almost certain.
Synonyms & Related Expressions
Alternatives
Slang/Informal:
- Slam dunk. (Something easily achieved or certain)
- No-brainer. (An obvious choice or certainty)
- In the bag. (Certain to be won or achieved)
- Bet. (Modern slang, signifies agreement or certainty, Okay, sure, or Definitely)
Vulgar/Emphatic:
- Damn sure thing.
- Fuckin' A right. (Expressing strong agreement/certainty)
Milder/Formal:
- A high probability.
- A near certainty.
- A reliable assumption.
Situational Appropriateness
- Appropriate in most informal and semi-formal contexts.
- Common in discussions involving predictions, planning, or assessing risk.
- The gambling origin is generally not problematic, but in a very formal context discussing risk, more precise terms like high probability might be preferred.
Misunderstanding Warnings
- Low risk. The meaning of safe (low risk) combined with bet (prediction/choice) makes the intended meaning clear. It's rarely taken as literal gambling advice outside of actual betting contexts.
Examples
- It's a safe bet that it will rain tomorrow; the forecast is 90%.
- Investing in established companies is generally considered a safer bet than startups.
- Given his track record, it's a safe bet he'll win the election.
Dialogue
Friend 1: Do you think Sarah will be at the party tonight?
Friend 2: She loves parties and she doesn't have other plans. I'd say it's a safe bet she'll be there.
Friend 1: Cool, I was hoping to see her.
Social Media Examples
- Tweet: Taylor Swift announcing a surprise album? Always a safe bet she has something up her sleeve! 😉 #Swifties
- Post: Planning a beach trip in Southern California in July? It's usually a safe bet the weather will be sunny. ☀️ #traveltips
- Comment: It's a safe bet that technology will continue to advance rapidly.
Response Patterns
- Agreement: I agree. / Definitely. / Almost certainly. / Good point.
- Mild Skepticism: You think so? / Nothing's ever 100% certain. / Maybe, but you never know.
- Inquiry: What makes you so sure?
Common Follow-up Questions/Actions
After someone calls something a safe bet:
- People often just accept the prediction or statement.
- If someone is skeptical, they might ask for the reasoning behind the confidence: Why do you say that?
- The conversation might move on based on that assumed certainty: Okay, assuming that happens, what's next?
After expressing skepticism (You think so?):
- The original speaker might provide more evidence or reasons for their confidence.
Conversation Starter
- No. Usually used to make a prediction or state a high likelihood within an existing conversation.
Intonation
- Stress usually falls on safe and bet.
- Often said with a tone of confidence or certainty.
- That's a SAFE BET.
Generation Differences
- Widely understood and used across generations.
Regional Variations
- Universally used in English-speaking regions. Dead cert is a regional synonym mainly found in the UK and Australia.